Donald Trump and Melania Trump smiling before the opening night performance of “The Color Purple” at … [+]
The most discussed revival of the Broadway season might be Donald Trump’s return to the White House.
While Trump’s victory in the 2024 U.S. presidential election will have significant implications for domestic and foreign affairs, it will also have a significant impact on Broadway. “This is not a small thing by any stretch of the imagination, and there are going to be irreparable consequences,” stated Jonathan Demar, a co-producer of the Tony Award-winning play Stereophonic.
“Most economic observers regard the incoming administration’s tariff and immigration proposals as likely to crash the economy,” observed Harvard University professor Derek Miller. Trump wants to impose a tariff of 10 percent to 20 percent on all imported items. He has also discussed imposing a tariff of at least 60 percent on items imported from China.
According to Mark Zandi, the chief economist at Moody’s, the proposed tariffs would result in “higher inflation and interest rates.” “[T]hey are a tax on all Americans in the form of higher prices for imported goods,” he continuedadding that prices could increase for “everything from basic necessities, such as food and clothes, to large-ticket items like cars and cell phones.”
The tariffs could also increase the prices of production set pieces made overseas, further bloating Broadway budgets. The average cost of mounting a musical on Broadway has increased about $1 million since last season to about $19.8 million.
“Because going to a Broadway show is a leisure activity and often part of larger tourist activity, an economic downturn spurred by those policies would seriously harm the industry, along with many others like it,” explained professor Miller. Spending more money on food and clothes, people would have less disposable income, and the “demand for luxury entertainment goods, which includes Broadway shows, will fall,” added College of the Holy Cross professor Melissa Boyle.
“Bad economies hit artists, whose incomes are always precarious, particularly hard,” emphasized professor Miller.
In addition to the decrease in demand for Broadway shows, the decrease in disposable income could also discourage some individuals from bankrolling Broadway shows. Prospective investors would have less money to invest, and alternative asset classes might seem more appealing.
On the stage, there might be some shows produced in response to the election results like Michael Moore’s 2017 play The Terms of My Surrender. But, in an effort to appeal to the broadest possible audiences, some Broadway producers might avoid mounting overtly political shows. “They do count on selling tickets to millions of people from all political backgrounds,” observed Matthew Rousu, the dean of the Sigmund Weis School of Business at Susquehanna University.
Professor Miller mentioned that “artists may also self-censor in new ways, particularly if right-wing attacks on trans people, immigrants, and other communities include Broadway shows as a part of their attacks.” “There may be a chilling effect regarding free speech and expression issues,” acknowledged Elmira College professor Jim Twombly.
Both the economic and artistic pressures “will likely combine to make Broadway even safer than it usually is: more splashy, anodyne productions likely to excite a large potential audience, and unlikely to draw negative attention from an increasingly intolerant ruling part,” remarked professor Miller.
In addition, Trump’s policies could affect the pipeline of future Broadway artists well he leaves the White House.
“In general, Republican administrations are not favorable for the arts; funding for the [National Education Association] and other government sources of arts support wanes in Republican administrations,” observed professor Boyle.” “[T]he non-profit Broadway entities would be negatively affected,” she highlighted. For example, Manhattan Theatre Club received $3,919,638 in government grants during 2022.
“What Trump and Project 2025 are planning on doing to public schools guarantees that arts education will disappear from public school education,” complained Peter Shankman, an entrepreneur whose mother served as the director of music for New York City Public Schools. The Project 2025 white paper from The Heritage Foundation conservative think tank recommends dismantling the U.S. Department of Education and reducing federal funds for public schools. “Where do you think the next Lin-Manuel Miranda will come from?” he asked.
However, Trump stated that “I know nothing about Project 2025.” “I disagree with some of the things they’re saying and some of the things they’re saying are absolutely ridiculous and abysmal,” he continued.
However, some of the fears haunting Broadway producers might never come true. Dean Rousu identified that there is a difference between “what Trump will do versus what he has said he will do.” “He might not accomplish a lot of what he said either because he will pivot on priorities or because he won’t get it through Congress,” he said.
Trump will start his second term as the President on January 20, 2025.
Disclaimer: I am a principal of the theatrical production company 42nd.club, which is a co-producer of Stereophonic. However, I am not personally involved in the production.
