FirstFT: US-brokered Lebanon ceasefire begins

Today’s agenda: Mexico hits back at Trump; China’s defence minister in graft probe; North Korean troops killed in Russia; and Starmer’s plunging ratings

Good morning. A ceasefire agreed by Israeli and Lebanese leaders has just taken effect at about 2am GMT, raising hopes of an end to year-long hostilities between Israel and Hizbollah. The Lebanese militant group has also accepted the deal, according to people involved in the negotiations. Here’s what to expect.

What are the terms of the deal? Under the US-brokered agreement, Israeli forces will gradually withdraw from Lebanon over 60 days and be replaced by the Lebanese army. Hizbollah will be barred from rebuilding its infrastructure in southern parts of the country, while its fighters are meant to move mainly north of the Litani river, which runs up to 30km from the Israel-Lebanon border.

Will the ceasefire hold? It is likely to be a tenuous peace, our Middle East editor Andrew England writes. In the past, neither UN peacekeeping forces nor the Lebanese army have managed to prevent Hizbollah from doing as it wished, though the new agreement includes a US-led monitoring mechanism to call out violations. How this will be implemented remains unclear.

Israel has also repeatedly said it will retain the right to strike unilaterally if it believes the Iran-backed group poses an imminent threat; Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu insisted yesterday that he had reached “full understandings” with the US that Israel will maintain “full military freedom of action” should Hizbollah violate the agreement. We have more details on the deal here.

Here’s what else we’re keeping tabs on today:

• Economic data: The US has its revised gross domestic product for the third quarter, as well as labour and consumer spending data.

• EU: Ursula von der Leyen will preside over the most rightwing European Commission in decades, with the bloc’s lawmakers set to approve her team for the next five years today.

• Namibia: The southern African country could see its first woman president if voters pick the ruling Swapo party’s candidate in polls today.

Five more top stories

1. Mexico’s president has hinted at retaliation over Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs on her nation’s exports as the peso slid against the dollar. “One tariff will come in response to another, and so on until we put shared companies at risk,” said Claudia Sheinbaum, noting that American carmakers were among Mexico’s principal exporters to the US. Here’s more from her remarks yesterday.

• Sheinbaum’s agenda: Today’s Big Read explores how the Mexican leader is doubling down on many of her predecessor’s more radical proposals amid the threat of Trump’s tariffs.

• Impact on oil: Producers have warned that the US president-elect’s plan to slap levies on Canadian imports will drive up petrol prices for American motorists.

2. Exclusive: China is investigating its defence minister for alleged corruption, according to current and former US officials familiar with the situation. Admiral Dong Jun, who was named in December 2023 after his predecessor was fired for corruption, is being investigated as part of a broader probe into graft into the country’s military, the officials said. Read the full story.

3. Exclusive: Investors in Elon Musk’s takeover of Twitter are set to make a huge windfall from a surge in the valuation of xAI. Musk has given backers of his $44bn Twitter acquisition 25 per cent of the shares in his artificial intelligence company, which is set to close a new $5bn fundraising round as early as today, doubling its valuation to $50bn in just six months.

4. A North Korean general was injured and several officers sent by Pyongyang to Russia were killed last week when Ukraine launched British-supplied Storm Shadow missiles at a Russian command centre, according to a Ukrainian official. The identity of the general was not disclosed. Here’s the latest from the front line.

5. Federal Reserve officials support moving “gradually” to lower interest rates given stronger than expected US economic growth and fading concerns about the health of the labour market. Minutes from the central bank’s rate-setting meeting this month suggest officials no longer see an urgent need to rapidly reach a “neutral” rates level that does not hamper growth.

News in-depth

The British public seems to be tiring of Sir Keir Starmer’s administration, whose landslide election win on July 4 now seems a distant memory. After five months of plummeting public support and growing corporate anger, even allies of the UK prime minister say he needs to raise his game — and quickly.

We’re also reading . . . 

• ‘Adios Adani!’: The reversal of Kenya’s support for the Indian group’s $1.85bn airport project shows how US bribery charges are threatening its ambitions in Africa.

• Infosys: The chair of the Indian IT services major expects more and more companies to build their own, smaller AI models. Read the FT’s interview with Nandan Nilekani.

• Assisted dying: The UK’s new bill restricts the right to those with less than six months to live, but predicting survival for individuals can be shaky, writes Anjana Ahuja.

• Waste less, earn more: Companies should take advantage of opportunities to cut food waste created by improved technology and changing tastes, writes Brooke Masters.

Chart of the day

Climate change is a global problem, and it requires a global solution, writes Martin Wolf. In the end, a $300bn deal on financing was agreed at COP29 but it is too little, too late.

Take a break from the news

On your marks, get set, glow? Leading female athletes, including Serena Williams, explain why their beauty regimes have become core to game-day preparations.